Financial Knowledge Popularization Month丨Communication Industry, Open a New Era of Internet of Everything (Part 1)

Editor's note:

To understand a listed company, you must be familiar with the industry environment in which the company operates. In order to help investors master the basic skills of financial analysis in different industries and improve their investment decision-making ability, the Investment Education Center of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, together with KPMG, Haitong Securities, Changjiang Securities, and Industrial Securities, jointly launched a series of investment education articles on “Industry from a Financial Perspective”. This article is the first one. It will take you to understand the development history and industry characteristics of the communication industry. Let's take a look together.

Communication industry, opening a new era of Internet of Everything (Part 1)

Communication is the bridge that connects people. Modern mobile communication developed in the 1980s and has gone through the 1G Big Brother voice era, the 2G text era, the 3G picture era, and the 4G video era. The coming 5G era, with its ultra-high speed, low latency, Internet of Things and other characteristics, may become the pioneer of the next wave of technology.

1. What kind of industry is communication

(1) The history of human development is a history of changes in the communications industry

In ancient frontiers, military information was transmitted, and troops were stationed on beacon towers to stand guard. Once the enemy was invaded, the beacon smoke was lit and transmitted one by one, which could stretch for hundreds of miles at a time to achieve the purpose of quickly reporting the enemy's situation and dispatching troops.

During the Sui and Tang Dynasties, pigeons were used to transmit letters in southern my country. Assuming that the average speed of the carrier pigeon is 48 kilometers per hour, and it can fly 5 to 8 hours a day, the daily transmission distance can reach 300 kilometers.

During the Song Dynasty, the delivery of the post had achieved unprecedented development. The 800-mile delivery was expedited, and the fast horse relay was continuously delivered. It only took 4 days to send a letter from Shanghai to Beijing.

In the 19th century, Morse turned letters into codes of long and short combinations, which were transmitted by telegraph (electromagnetic waves) at a speed of 300,000 kilometers per second, and the distance of 3,500 kilometers only took about 0.01 seconds. In the same century, Bell discovered that the vibration of the magnetic sheet would emit a faint sound, and the sound could be transmitted to the distance through the wire, and the "electric" medium was used to realize the mutual conversion of sound energy and electrical energy, and then invented the telephone. Since then, mankind has truly entered the era of real-time two-way communication.

Every upgrade and iteration of the communication industry has a positive impact on society and people's lives. The continuous evolution of communication technology also gradually changes the way humans perceive the world.

(2) The composition of the modern communication industry chain

my country's modern communication industry chain consists of many important parts, including operators, equipment manufacturers, and optical fiber and cable manufacturers.

中国移动、中国电信、中国联通三大运营商负责建设和运营电信网络，担负起建设移动通讯网络的重任。运营商通过招标集采的方式采购核心网设备（交换机、路由器、系统设备等）、接入网设备（基站、天线、家庭网关等）、传输网设备（光纤光缆、光传输设备、光电子器件等）、配套设备（测试设备、连接和保护设备、布线设备等）等来实现网络建设。通信行业具有非常高的专业度，不同厂家在自己的细分领域贡献自己的科研实力。国内知名的设备商包括华为和中兴等，主要研发核心网及接入网设备。

（三）运营商的角色

运营商为我们提供移动语音通话和移动数据流量等电信服务，所以离我们生活很近，我们每个月为手机充值、为宽带接入付费等都是在与运营商打交道。

然而，运营商提供的业务远不止这些，它们还有大量的对公创新业务，包括提供IDC（数据中心）、云计算、物联网、大数据等重点业务在内的产业互联网服务。其中，IDC提供机柜出租、运维等基础业务；云计算通过生态合作，助力行业客户上云；物联网指建设物联网专用网络及平台，提供万物互联服务；大数据则通过数据采集和分析，打造产业互联网智慧应用解决方案。

进入5G时代，为了更好发挥通信网络的高科技属性，运营商对公业务将迎来新的尝试，为无人工厂、远程医疗、智慧城市、车联网等应用场景提供支持，进一步提升现代社会的运行效率。

二、通信行业的特点

（一）通信行业迭代发展快，周期性明显

通信行业准入壁垒高，迭代发展快，周期性明显。1994年第一张GSM网的建设，拉开我国通信行业发展序幕。发展第一阶段受益于人口红利，根据统计局数据，2007年底手机用户渗透率近50%。根据网易科技，2009年发放3G牌照，随后开启以流量红利为主导的第二阶段。2013年4G建设大规模启动，手机用户渗透率达到90%。根据央广网，2018年12月5G频谱颁发，根据中国政府网，半年后5G牌照颁发，根据中国移动微信公众号，2020年7月完成R16 5G标准。根据工信部数据，2020年底我国已建成全球最大5G网络，开通5G基站超过71.8万座，5G终端连接数超过2亿。

It can be seen that we are now in the early stage of 5G construction. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "5G Application "Sail" Action Plan (2021-2023)" clearly states that by 2023, there will be 18 5G base stations per 10,000 people, and the corresponding 5G macro station construction scale will reach 260. We expect to continue to build more than 1.9 million stations from 2021 to 2023, with an annual average of more than 600,000 macro stations.

(2) Policy promotion and capital expenditure investment drive the development of the communications industry chain

At the policy level, the state is actively promoting 5G construction. In March 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Promoting the Accelerated Development of 5G", proposing to speed up the construction and deployment of 5G networks, enrich 5G technology application scenarios, continue to increase 5G technology research and development efforts, and focus on building a 5G security system.

At the capital level, operators' capital expenditures will drive the entire communications manufacturing industry chain. Judging from the plans of the three major domestic operators, according to the 2020 promotion materials of the three major operators, China Telecom and China Unicom will build a 5G network in a co-construction and sharing manner. There are about 380,000 5G base stations available in 2020, and it is estimated that in 2021 About 320,000 new base stations are added, and the 5G capital expenditure is expected to be 39.7 billion and 35 billion yuan respectively; China Mobile has 390,000 base stations in 2020, and is expected to build about 120,000 2.6GHz base stations in 2021, with an estimated 5G capital expenditure of 110 billion yuan. Communication equipment manufacturers represented by Huawei and ZTE are responsible for the construction of 5G base stations and supporting projects, and are also continuously investing in research and development expenses. Currently, they have a number of 5G standard patents, and their core competitiveness in the industry and market voice have been strengthened.

(This article is contributed by Zhu Jinsong and Zhang Zhengqing of Haitong Securities Research Institute)

(Disclaimer: This article is published for investor education purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate on this basis at their own risk. Shenzhen Stock Exchange strives to ensure that the information contained in this article is accurate and reliable, but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. does not make any guarantees on the timeliness and timeliness, and is not responsible for the loss caused by the use of this article.)

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